Article

Unjustified Poisson assumptions lead to overconfident estimates of the effective reproductive number

2025-07-31

Abstract excerpt

Time-varying effective reproductive numbers of infectious diseases are commonly estimated using renewal equation models. In the widely applied R package EpiEstim and various related tools, this approach is combined with a Poisson distributional assumption. This has been criticized on various occasions, mostly on grounds of general model realism or a desire to estimate overdispersion parameters. Here we argue tha...

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Literature Corpus work: e280b6fb-599e-5860-82b0-ceb250af4323
DOI: 10.1101/2025.07.31.25332479

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