Article

Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves

2020-09-18

Abstract excerpt

We construct a recursive Bayesian smoother, termed EpiFilter, for estimating the effective reproduction number, R, from the incidence of an infectious disease in real time and retrospectively. Our approach borrows from Kalman filtering theory, is quick and easy to compute, generalisable, deterministic and unlike many current methods, requires no change-point or window size assumptions. We model R as a flexible, hi...

Topics

Open a Topic to create a Post that cites this publication.

Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: 34eda71c-b9ab-5060-8ee1-504404b94592
DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.14.20194589

Open publication

Related research

Semantic proximity does not establish scientific evidence.

Click a neighbor to travelStep 1 · 12 closest

Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic wavesDOI 10.1101/2020.09.14.20194589Read

EpiFusion: Joint inference of the effective reproduction number by integrating phylodynamic and epidemiological modelling with particle filteringSemantic proximity Read

Refining reproduction number estimates to account for unobserved generations of infection in emerging epidemicsSemantic proximity Read

Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detectionSemantic proximity Read

EpiLPS: a fast and flexible Bayesian tool for near real-time estimation of the time-varying reproduction numberSemantic proximity Read

Estimating the instantaneous reproduction number (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>)<i>by using particle filter</i>Semantic proximity Read

Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbersSemantic proximity Read

Enhancing Time-Varying Reproduction Number Estimates with Behavior and Surveillance DataSemantic proximity Read

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number,<i>R<sub>t</sub></i>Semantic proximity Read

Incorporating human mobility to enhance epidemic response and estimate real-time reproduction numbersSemantic proximity Read

Reproduction number estimation using smoothing methods Reproduction number and smoothing methodsSemantic proximity Read

Research Article Summary: Inferring change points in the COVID-19 spreading reveals the effectiveness of interventionsSemantic proximity Read

Time-varying reproduction number estimation: Fusing compartmental models with generalised additive modelsSemantic proximity Read