Article

Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection

2022-09-01

Abstract excerpt

The effective reproduction number R is a prominent statistic for inferring the transmissibility of infectious diseases and effectiveness of interventions. R purportedly provides an easy-to-interpret threshold for deducing whether an epidemic will grow ( R >1) or decline ( R <1). We posit that this interpretation can be misleading and statistically overconfident when applied to infections accumulated from groups fe...

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Literature Corpus work: 4f7379d1-e236-531e-8aba-9b2505feb229
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.31.22279450

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