Article

Instantaneous Reproduction Number Estimation From Modelled Incidence

2025-12-15

Abstract excerpt

The time-varying reproduction number ( R t ) is a critical quantity in monitoring an infectious disease outbreak. We propose a new method for estimating R t from an infectivity profile, expressed as a generation time distribution, and a time series of probabilistic estimates of disease incidence, modelled as log-normally distributed random variables. This is a common output of disease incidence models that are b...

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Literature Corpus work: acc44122-562b-5152-b42b-6f92a152254e
DOI: 10.64898/2025.12.11.25342071

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