Article

Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers

2021-09-14

Abstract excerpt

We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number ( R ) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Inherent latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with smaller and intrinsically noisier case incidence across periods of subcritical spread, mean that resurgence cannot be reliably detected without signif...

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Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: 89518be2-89b3-5660-a5cb-dfce97e40d0e
DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.08.21263270

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