Article

The stochastic dynamics of early epidemics: probability of establishment, initial growth rate, and infection cluster size at first detection

2020-11-18

Abstract excerpt

Emerging epidemics and local infection clusters are initially prone to stochastic effects that can substantially impact the epidemic trajectory. While numerous studies are devoted to the deterministic regime of an established epidemic, mathematical descriptions of the initial phase of epidemic growth are comparatively rarer. Here, we review existing mathematical results on the epidemic size over time, and derive n...

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Literature Corpus work: da352fc2-00cf-5cce-a3ff-ddebdf27dc6c
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.17.20233403

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