Article
Epidemic dynamics shape variant appearance and stochastic establishment: implications for vaccination
2026-07-22
Abstract excerpt
In a population model for an infectious disease, we consider the early stochastic dynamics of an emergent (“mutant”) strain, appearing and spreading during an epidemic of another (“wildtype”) strain. The mutant may not reach establishment in the host population. The time at which the mutant first appears determines its probability of establishment. We calculate this establishment probability with two methods. The...
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Identifiers and source
- Literature Corpus work
- 57a5ca2c-1521-53fc-91ef-bbad7f59db91
- DOI
- 10.64898/2026.07.21.26358562