Article

The limits of Bayesian estimates of divergence times in measurably evolving populations

2026-03-03

Abstract excerpt

Bayesian inference of divergence times for extant species using molecular data is an unconventional statistical problem: Divergence times and molecular rates are confounded, and only their product, the molecular branch length, is statistically identifiable. This means we must use priors on times and rates to break the identifiability problem. As a consequence, there is a lower bound in the uncertainty that can be...

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Literature Corpus work: aa083e4a-636a-5c65-8b0d-3526085a8445
DOI: 10.64898/2026.02.28.708707

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