Modeling Pulsed Evolution and Time-Independent Variation Improves the Confidence Level of Ancestral and Hidden State Predictions.

Abstract excerpt

Ancestral state reconstruction is not only a fundamental tool for studying trait evolution, but also very useful for predicting the unknown trait values (hidden states) of extant species. A well-known problem in ancestral and hidden state predictions is that the uncertainty associated with predictions can be so large that predictions themselves are of little use. Therefore, for meaningful interpretation of...

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