Article

The Cross-Immunity Valley: Non-Monotonic Dynamics and the Hospital-Morbidity Trade-off in Delayed Variant Emergence

2026-08-27

Abstract excerpt

<title>Abstract</title> <p> The sequential emergence of novel, immune-evasive pathogen variants represents one of the defining forecasting failures of modern infectious disease epidemiology, most vividly exposed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A central, yet poorly quantified, question facing public health authorities is whether policies that delay variant importation—border closures, travel restrictions, target...

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Literature Corpus work: 1486e0a4-69b7-5cd4-bf7a-dd66554600fc
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9801380/v2

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