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The Cross-Immunity Valley: Non-Monotonic Dynamics and the Hospital-Morbidity Trade-off in Delayed Variant Emergence

2026-05-28

Abstract excerpt

<title>Abstract</title> <p> The sequential emergence of novel, immune-evasive pathogen variants represents one of the defining forecasting failures of modern infectious disease epidemiology, most vividly exposed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A central, yet poorly quantified, question facing public health authorities is whether policies that delay variant importation—border closures, travel restrictions, target...

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Literature Corpus work
d76ba3c0-9256-54eb-9c1a-31ba5d4e6de3
DOI
10.21203/rs.3.rs-9801380/v1
Open publication

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The Cross-Immunity Valley: Non-Monotonic Dynamics and the Hospital-Morbidity Trade-off in Delayed Variant EmergenceDOI 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9801380/v1
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