Article

Bayesian inference across multiple models suggests a strong increase in lethality of COVID-19 in late 2020 in the UK

2021-03-12

Abstract excerpt

We apply Bayesian inference methods to a suite of distinct compartmental models of generalised SEIR type, in which diagnosis and quarantine are included via extra compartments. We investigate the evidence for a change in lethality of COVID-19 in late autumn 2020 in the UK, using age-structured, weekly national aggregate data for cases and mortalities. Models that allow a (step-like or graded) change in infection f...

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Literature Corpus work: 083e33d8-a542-5171-9092-d133e3b4ef0c
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.10.21253311

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