Article

Predicting the Health Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the UK to October 2023 Using a Dynamic Causal Model

2022-10-10

Abstract excerpt

Background – predicting the future UK Covid-19 epidemic provides a baseline of a vaccine only mitigation policy from which to judge additional public health interventions.Methods - a Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) is used to compare previous predictions with actual estimates over a 12-month period. It is also used to predict the future trends in infections, long-Covid, hospital admissions and deaths over the next 12 m...

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Literature Corpus work: 1541f9cf-dea5-53f3-8e89-571b772dfeec
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4243794

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