Article
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Science (New York, N.Y.) - 9 Apr 2021
Davies Nicholas G, Abbott Sam, Barnard Rosanna C, Jarvis Christopher I, Kucharski Adam J, Munday James D, Pearson Carl A B, Russell Timothy W, Tully Damien C, Washburne Alex D, Wenseleers Tom, Gimma Amy, Waites William, Wong Kerry L M, van Zandvoort Kevin, Silverman Justin D, Diaz-Ordaz Karla, Keogh Ruth, Eggo Rosalind M, Funk Sebastian, Jit Mark, Atkins Katherine E, Edmunds W John
Abstract excerpt
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted...
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