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Article

Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions

2021-09-30

Abstract excerpt

<p>Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood). Previous research suggests that people tend to under-weight both their prior (base rate neglect) and the likelihood (conservatism), although this varies by individual and situation. Yet this work generally elicits people's knowledge as si...

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Literature Corpus work
aad396e2-b9a2-555e-8478-c971c1154324
DOI
10.31234/osf.io/q7znk
Open publication

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Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributionsDOI 10.31234/osf.io/q7znk
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