Article

Breaking the chains of independence: A Bayesian uncertainty model of normative violations in human causal probabilistic reasoning

2025-04-22

Abstract excerpt

<p>Empirical research in causal and probabilistic reasoning has revealed systematic deviations from normative principles, often interpreted as biases. We present the Bayesian Uncertainty Model (BUM), a computational approach that explains these deviations through Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BUM posits that people do not reason with a single causal model but instead weigh multiple hypotheses, incorporating unce...

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Literature Corpus work: c65c4eb5-ddbf-5dba-83e6-f39ff5f2500e
DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/8tpxn_v1

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