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How Predictable Was the 2026 Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak? A Rolling-Origin Evaluation of Short-Term Forecast Models, an Empirically Recalibrated Bayesian Model, and a Data-Driven Baseline–Bayesian Ensemble, Using Daily Surveillance Data

2026-07-30

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<h4>Background</h4> The 2026 outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo generated the largest recorded epidemic caused by Bundibugyo virus and displayed unusually rapid early growth. Early scenario projections warned that the outbreak could become one of the largest Ebola-family epidemics on record, but were calibrated to assumed mortality totals and intervention scenarios rather...

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Literature Corpus work
ff02d92c-a2f0-5d5b-9cf8-3422f913b9ea
DOI
10.64898/2026.07.28.26359159
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How Predictable Was the 2026 Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak? A Rolling-Origin Evaluation of Short-Term Forecast Models, an Empirically Recalibrated Bayesian Model, and a Data-Driven Baseline–Bayesian Ensemble, Using Daily Surveillance DataDOI 10.64898/2026.07.28.26359159
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