Article

Basic Baseline model design choices can substantially influence performance in collaborative forecast hubs

2026-03-20

Abstract excerpt

Over the past decade, outbreak forecasting has become an increasingly used tool to assist public health decision-making during epidemics. Collaborative forecast hubs, where multiple teams submit predictions in real-time, are the gold standard for such efforts. For each hub, a Baseline model is used as a performance benchmark for other models. Although the Baseline is understood as a naïve forecast, its design is s...

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Literature Corpus work: fd59c5f1-298c-5ad5-a4a3-5c8179a06989
DOI: 10.64898/2026.03.18.26348748

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