Article

Forecastability of infectious disease time series: are some seasons and pathogens intrinsically more difficult to forecast?

2025-04-30

Abstract excerpt

For infectious disease forecasting challenges, individual model performance typically varies across space and time. This phenomenon raises the question: are there properties of the target time series that contribute to a particular season, location, or disease being more difficult to forecast? Here we characterize a time series’ future predictability using a forecastability metric that calculates the spectral dens...

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Literature Corpus work: b6debeee-cce4-530b-8565-5a8f3e24562d
DOI: 10.1101/2025.04.29.25326677

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