Article

A risk-of-contagion index using a Bayesian based model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

2026-06-10

Abstract excerpt

<h4>ABSTRACT</h4> During the COVID-19 pandemic, limited testing capacity and reporting delays complicated epidemic surveillance and decision-making in Mexico. We calibrated covidestim , a Bayesian nowcasting model, to estimate the total SARS-CoV-2 infections from reported cases and deaths using Mexican surveillance data. Disease-progression distribution priors were calibrated using Mexico City records and valida...

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Literature Corpus work: a258d49f-6c30-599f-bdc8-d81e273dbdb5
DOI: 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355274

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