Article

The uncertainty of infectious disease outbreaks is underestimated

2023-01-17

Abstract excerpt

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever observe a single epidemic, and therefore cannot empirically determine aleatoric uncertainty. Here, for the first time, we characterise both epistemic and a...

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Literature Corpus work: a088c250-88aa-5cc2-8b87-81346e087575
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2336941/v1

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