Article

Forecasting COVID-19 cases in US states using reconstructed incidence data

2025-10-21

Abstract excerpt

Branching process models are commonly used in infectious disease forecasting and often rely on daily incidence data, but their utility can be restricted if incidence is not reported daily or if reporting becomes less frequent during prolonged outbreaks. In this study, an Expectation Maximisation algorithm is used to reconstruct the daily incidence of COVID-19 cases from weekly case counts. Using data from 13 US st...

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Literature Corpus work: 7bd464f7-3c93-55f2-8950-58552f7f8fbd
DOI: 10.1101/2025.10.20.25338346

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