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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability

2024-11-18

Abstract excerpt

<p>Accurate predictions about the future are crucial for optimizing policy choices, but finding skilled forecasters is challenging. Large forecasting tournaments can identify generalist superforecasters who make reliably accurate predictions across domains, but such tournaments take months to complete and do little to explain why these forecasters perform at a consistently high level. We solve these problems by de...

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Literature Corpus work
44a87199-b8e1-597e-ad40-7e6d8bbb48f2
DOI
10.31234/osf.io/a7kdx_v1
Open publication

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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting AbilityDOI 10.31234/osf.io/a7kdx_v1
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