Article

Machine learning augmentation reduces prediction error in collective forecasting: development and validation across prediction markets

2023-01-20

Abstract excerpt

The recent COVID-19 crisis highlighted the inadequacy of human forecasting. We aim to leverage human prediction markets with real-time machine weighting of likely higher accuracy trades to improve performance. The crowd sourced Almanis prediction market longitudinal platform (n=1822) and Next Generation Social Science (NGS2) platform (n=103) were utilised. A 43-feature model predicted top quintile relative Brier a...

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Literature Corpus work: 3a21633d-2f57-5e32-af37-b4aad5e1b3b1
DOI: 10.1101/2023.01.19.23284578

Open publication

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