Article
How do people predict a random walk? Lessons for models of human cognition
2022-07-07
Abstract excerpt
<p>Repeated forecasts of changing values are a key aspect of many everyday tasks, from predicting the weather to financial markets. A particularly simple and informative instance of such fluctuating values are random walks: sequences in which each point is a random movement from only its preceding value, unaffected by any previous points. Moreover, random walks often yield basic rational forecasting solutions in w...
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Identifiers and source
- Literature Corpus work
- e964d7f1-a6a5-55f9-bab6-5d9169e9b493
- DOI
- 10.31234/osf.io/fjtha