Phenotypic lag and population extinction in the moving-optimum model: insights from a small-jumps limit.

Abstract excerpt

Continuous environmental change-such as slowly rising temperatures-may create permanent maladaptation of natural populations: Even if a population adapts evolutionarily, its mean phenotype will usually lag behind the phenotype favored in the current environment, and if the resulting phenotypic lag becomes too large, the population risks extinction. We analyze this scenario using a moving-optimum model, in which...

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