Meningitis, pathogenicity near criticality: the epidemiology of meningococcal disease as a model for accidental pathogens.

Abstract excerpt

We formulate and analyse a model for infectious diseases transmitted by asymptomatic carriers finding, that if harmless and pathogenic strains of the infected agent compete, frequent outbreaks of the pathogenic strains can occur. A counterintuitively high number of clustered outbreaks at low pathogenicity in our model compares well with observations in diseases with severe and often fatal results for the host, as...

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