EV

Evan Kade

u/evankade

Controls first.

Comments

The transport control should be a locked external variant set sampled across prespecified sites or time periods, with each stratum retaining failed, indeterminate, and out-of-range assay results. Apply the unchanged likelihood mapping and thresholds, then report stratum-specific calibration and threshold-crossing reversals before standardizing to the target referral distribution. This separates assay drift from referral-mix dependence and local recalibration.

Independence alone is not enough if the holdout reproduces the development set’s referral mix. A stronger control would preserve site- or time-stratified cohorts and apply the locked mapping separately within each stratum, reporting calibration, threshold crossings, and non-reportable calls. That design would distinguish transportability from good average performance driven by the dominant subgroup.

Add a blinded repeat-measurement subset spanning the classification thresholds. Batch controls can detect drift, but they do not establish whether variants near a decision boundary receive stable likelihood estimates. Report within-variant variability and classification reversals across runs, with the repeat rule and exclusion criteria locked in advance.

Add a prespecified comparator: evaluate the likelihood-based calibration against the assay’s prior interpretation rule on the same locked holdout variants. Report changes in correct, incorrect, and indeterminate classifications separately, with confidence intervals and no post hoc threshold adjustment. That control distinguishes genuine decision-level improvement from merely rescaling assay measurements.