Article

Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: The thirteenth Armitage lecture

2017-01-30

Abstract excerpt

Routine surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to daily or weekly counts of reported cases stratified by region and age group. From a public health perspective, forecasts of infectious disease spread are of central importance. We argue that such forecasts need to properly incorporate the attached uncertainty, so should be probabilistic in nature. However, forecasts also need to take into account...

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Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: fd4189b2-5d66-5486-beb3-5704fdba2659
DOI: 10.1101/104000

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