Article

Reference-Class Failure in Mortality Prediction: A Synthetic Study of Irreducible Uncertainty in End-of-Life Prognostic Models

2026-06-17

Abstract excerpt

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Background. Mortality-prediction models are increasingly embedded in clinical decision support and return precise individual risks, yet discrimination and calibration describe average behavior across a population and do not establish whether an individual end-of-life patient belongs to a meaningful, transferable reference class within the development data. Objective. To define referen...

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Literature Corpus work: 8d1993c1-7e35-56aa-9c08-4b9b19828f42
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10058406/v1

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