Article

Simple cumulative weighting of routine surveillance data identifies epidemic wave origins more accurately than a large language model: evidence from eight COVID-19 waves in Japan

2026-06-03

Abstract excerpt

Identifying the origin of an emerging epidemic wave within days of onset could enable targeted response before national spread, yet current methods rely on genomic sequencing that lags clinical detection by 2-4 weeks. We analysed daily COVID-19 cases from Japan's 47 prefectures across eight waves (2020-2023), aggregated into 11 regional blocks. Wave onset was defined by the first difference of the K-value (K'). Si...

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Literature Corpus work: 769f6234-3b2d-577b-9bc4-bb62699de9d1
DOI: 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354691

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Simple cumulative weighting of routine surveillance data identifies epidemic wave origins more accurately than a large language model: evidence from eight COVID-19 waves in JapanDOI 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354691Read

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