Article

The Paradox of Neglecting Changes in Behavior: How Standard Epidemic Models Misestimate Both Transmissibility and Final Epidemic Size

2025-12-08

Abstract excerpt

During epidemic outbreaks, populations adapt their behavior in response to disease burden, fundamentally altering transmission dynamics. Despite this, most compartmental models assume constant contact rates throughout outbreaks. To quantify biases from this assumption, we fitted a baseline SEIRD model with constant transmission and three behavioral variants—incorporating mortality-driven transmission reduction via...

Topics

Open a Topic to create a Post that cites this publication.

Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: 710173c7-8395-50d4-8731-88331652d32a
DOI: 10.64898/2025.12.07.25341782

Open publication

Related research

Semantic proximity does not establish scientific evidence.

Click a neighbor to travelStep 1 · 12 closest

The Paradox of Neglecting Changes in Behavior: How Standard Epidemic Models Misestimate Both Transmissibility and Final Epidemic SizeDOI 10.64898/2025.12.07.25341782Read

Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 controlSemantic proximity Read

Homophily in risk and behavior complicate understanding the COVID-19 epidemic curveSemantic proximity Read

Research Article Summary: Inferring change points in the COVID-19 spreading reveals the effectiveness of interventionsSemantic proximity Read

A Novel Compartmental Approach to Modeling COVID-19 Disease Dynamics and Analyzing the Effect of Common Preventative MeasuresSemantic proximity Read

Adaptive human behavior and delays in information availability autonomously modulate epidemic wavesSemantic proximity Read

Some principles for using epidemiologic study results to parameterize transmission modelsSemantic proximity Read

Stochastic modelling of early-stage COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in rural communities in the United StatesSemantic proximity Read

Accurately Estimating Unreported Infections using Information TheorySemantic proximity Read

Assessing the relative contributions of healthcare protocols for epidemic control: an example with network transmission model for COVID-19Semantic proximity Read

Complex Temporal behavior Modeling for Pandemic Spread: Not a Simple Delayed Response!Semantic proximity Read

This time is different: model-based evaluation of the implications of SARS-CoV-2 infection kinetics for disease controlSemantic proximity Read

A Ten-Year Prospectus for Mathematical EpidemiologySemantic proximity Read