Article

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar events

2022-05-01

Abstract excerpt

This work presents a methodology to recreate the observed dynamics of emerging infectious diseases and to generate short-term forecasts for their evolution based on superspreading events occurring on key calendar dates. The method is illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Mexico and Peru up to January 31, 2022. We also produce scenarios obtained through the estimation of a time-dependent contact rate, wi...

Topics

Open a Topic to create a Post that cites this publication.

Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: 459a55a9-45cc-5c1a-a3f9-c36b17f9f00b
DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.29.22274465

Open publication

Related research

Semantic proximity does not establish scientific evidence.

Click a neighbor to travelStep 1 · 12 closest

A methodology to generate epidemic scenarios for emerging infectious diseases based on the use of key calendar eventsDOI 10.1101/2022.04.29.22274465Read

COVID-19 epidemic scenarios into 2021 based on observed key superspreading eventsSemantic proximity Read

A retrospective analysis of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions for Mexico and Peru: a modeling studySemantic proximity Read

CovSyn: an agent-based model for synthesizing COVID-19 course of disease and contact tracing dataSemantic proximity Read

The Timing of COVID-19 TransmissionSemantic proximity Read

A rapid review of available evidence on the serial interval and generation time of COVID-19Semantic proximity Read

Transmission dynamics and forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, March 20-November 11, 2020Semantic proximity Read

Bayesian Spatio-temporal prediction and counterfactual generation: an application in non-pharmaceutical interventions in Covid-19Semantic proximity Read

A Stochastic Process Based Modular Tool-Box for Simulating COVID-19 Infection SpreadSemantic proximity Read

Estimating the Generation Interval from the Incidence Rate, the Optimal Quarantine Duration and the Efficiency of Fast Switching Periodic Protocols for Coronavirus (COVID- 19) DiseaseSemantic proximity Read

Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset dataSemantic proximity Read

Towards course of disease based epidemiological modelling: motivation and computational optimizationSemantic proximity Read

Analytical Solution of a New <i>SEIR</i> Model Based on Latent Period-Infectious Period Chronological OrderSemantic proximity Read