Article

Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of Covid-19

2020-05-19

Abstract excerpt

We conduct a unique, Amazon MTurk-based global experiment to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. The scientific basis for our inquiry is the received wisdom that infectious disease spread, especially in the initial stages, follows an exponential function meaning few positive cases can explode into a widespread pandemic...

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Literature Corpus work: 3fc0a3f5-8665-5efc-9a4e-509fbe3bc543
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3602433

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