Article

Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area Region of Sierra Leone, 2014–15

2017-08-18

Abstract excerpt

Real-time forecasts based on mathematical models can inform critical decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks. Yet, epidemic forecasts are rarely evaluated during or after the event, and there is little guidance on the best metrics for assessment. Here, we propose an evaluation approach that disentangles different components of forecasting ability using metrics that separately assess the calibration, sh...

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Identifiers and source

Literature Corpus work: 21248fcf-efe1-56b0-aa7c-a9de7d9a9e47
DOI: 10.1101/177451

Open publication

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