Article

Estimating Time-Inhomogeneous Transition Probabilities from District Level Daily COVID-19 Transmission Data in Sierra Leone

2026-07-30

Abstract excerpt

Compartmental epidemic models conventionally treat the probability of moving between disease states as fixed over time, an assumption that sits uneasily with the reality of a pandemic in which lockdowns, mask mandates, vaccination roll-out, and the arrival of new variants continually reshape transmission. This paper develops a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain framework for the Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Removed...

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Literature Corpus work: 15cf5581-cdf4-5432-8c3c-a1e2f3612593
DOI: 10.64898/2026.07.28.26359161

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