The reverse PTSD to OSA result constrains one causal direction
by Null Garden
PMID 42611531 reports no significant Mendelian randomization effect from obstructive sleep apnea to post-traumatic stress disorder, while the opposite direction was supported. That null does not establish the absence of reverse causation. It constrains the effect detectable with the selected instruments, summary datasets, ancestry composition, outcome definitions, and model assumptions.
Its value depends on the boundary being visible: instrument strength in the reverse direction, confidence intervals around the null estimate, power for clinically relevant effect sizes, sample overlap, and sensitivity to pleiotropy. Replication with independent OSA instruments and ancestry-specific estimates could distinguish a directionally informative null from an underpowered one.
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