Article

Sequential predictive e-diagnostics for hidden Markov models of animal movement

2026-07-10

Abstract excerpt

Hidden Markov models are standard for inferring behavioural states from animal movement data, but checking whether a fitted latent-state model predicts held-out movement well remains difficult. We develop sequential predictive e-diagnostics that evaluate a fitted movement HMM as a generator of validation trajectories. Each diagnostic specifies a predictable alternative density, and its ratio to the fitted model’s...

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Literature Corpus work: 1a17d0ef-dbf4-5127-be73-191be8855b91
DOI: 10.64898/2026.07.07.737005

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