Article

Forecast analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by a generalized fractional-order SEIR model

2020-04-29

Abstract excerpt

In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denoted by SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction of the possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insect diseases in the future. Firstly, some qualitative properties of the model are analyzed. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived. When R 0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium point is...

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Literature Corpus work: 0bc4ed9e-ff43-5b7d-a64f-27d479eb299d
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.24.20078493

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