Article

Probabilistic dengue forecasting and early warning across Mexico (1985-2026): a machine-learning and statistical ensemble with conformal calibration

2026-06-16

Abstract excerpt

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Background: Dengue is among the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral diseases, and in 2024 the Region of the Americas reported a record of over 13 million cases, amid renewed concern about increased circulation of dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3). Forecasting tools that report calibrated uncertainty, cover a whole country subnationally, and stay reliable during surges remain scarce fo...

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Literature Corpus work: 0b7d6311-3221-51c2-9d6d-10d43e7adc4a
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10035640/v1

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