[Causality: risk factors and interventions].

Abstract excerpt

A risk factor has a causal effect on a disease when the disease would not have occurred in the absence of the risk factor. Analogous reasoning applies to the effect of a particular therapy. Thinking in terms of contrasts is fundamental to causal reasoning in medicine. The contrast determines the content of the causal claim; the most important assumption here is that the prognosis between groups is comparable....

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