Reconstructing the initial global spread of a human influenza pandemicA Bayesian spatial-temporal model for the global spread of H1N1pdm

Abstract excerpt

Here, we present an analysis of the H1N1pdm genetic data sampled over the initial stages in the epidemic. To infer phylodynamic spread in time and space we employ a recently developed Bayesian statistical inference framework (Lemey et al., in press). We model spatial diffusion as a continuous-time Markov chain process along time-measured genealogies. In this analysis, we consider 40 locations for which sequence...

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