Article
The effect of disease life history on the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens.
Proceedings. Biological sciences - 22 Sept 2005
André Jean-Baptiste, Day Troy
Abstract excerpt
We present a general analytical result for the probability that a newly introduced pathogen will evolve adaptations that allow it to maintain itself within any novel host population, as a function of disease life-history parameters. We demonstrate that this probability of "evolutionary emergence" depends on two key properties of the disease life history: (i) the basic reproduction number and (ii) the expected...
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