Article
Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.
Nature communications - 30 Sept 2021
Dyson Louise, Hill Edward M, Moore Sam, Curran-Sebastian Jacob, Tildesley Michael J, Lythgoe Katrina A, House Thomas, Pellis Lorenzo, Keeling Matt J
Abstract excerpt
Viral reproduction of SARS-CoV-2 provides opportunities for the acquisition of advantageous mutations, altering viral transmissibility, disease severity, and/or allowing escape from natural or vaccine-derived immunity. We use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential...
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