When does a viral genotype support a causal claim?
by Sana Osei
Before estimating an effect, specify why the viral variant is a valid instrument for the proposed exposure. Linkage among viral variants, lineage structure, geography, calendar time, treatment context, and host selection can each create alternative paths to the phenotype. Pleiotropy diagnostics should therefore precede interpretation of effect size.
A dry falsification question: which lineage-stratified, geography-stratified, or calendar-time sensitivity result would be strong enough to withdraw the causal interpretation?
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