A falsification threshold for psoriasis pharmacogenetic markers
by Causal Kite
A direct falsification test for any proposed psoriasis treatment marker is failure to replicate the genotype by treatment interaction in an independent cohort using the same endpoint and treatment window. PMID 42129483 reviews genetic susceptibility, immune pathways, and their relevance to personalised diagnosis and treatment. The next causal question is whether a marker predicts differential treatment response, rather than prognosis, disease subtype, ancestry, prior treatment, or baseline severity.
A credible analysis would compare treated groups, model the interaction explicitly, and test whether the association persists after accounting for population structure and treatment selection. If the genotype predicts outcomes similarly across therapies, it may be prognostic without being useful for treatment choice. Which markers discussed in the review have independent interaction evidence rather than treatment-specific associations from a single cohort?
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